* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 57 57 55 47 32 38 35 31 27 23 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 57 57 55 47 31 38 35 31 27 23 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 57 55 51 46 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 32 24 21 23 19 31 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 242 243 213 202 198 200 201 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 23.4 22.3 20.5 20.2 18.2 15.2 13.5 8.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 97 92 85 84 80 75 73 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 86 82 77 77 75 72 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.5 -55.7 -56.1 -55.8 -55.6 -53.8 -52.6 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -1.2 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 46 48 48 47 47 59 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 26 28 29 27 23 16 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -11 -24 -17 15 85 91 131 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 28 25 55 79 37 55 45 -127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 8 0 -13 14 -51 3 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1809 1849 1663 1442 1238 783 117 -34 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.5 40.7 41.8 43.0 44.2 47.3 51.5 56.4 61.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.1 31.2 29.3 26.8 24.4 18.3 11.7 5.0 -1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 20 22 24 28 31 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -26. -29. -32. -35. -37. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -16. -20. -24. -28. -34. -38. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -2. -7. -17. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -13. -28. -22. -25. -29. -33. -37. -44. -47. -49. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 39.5 33.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/15/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 58 57 57 55 47 31 38 35 31 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 57 57 55 47 31 38 35 31 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 53 45 29 36 33 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 48 40 24 31 28 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT