* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 42 41 39 37 34 31 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 38 33 30 29 27 27 29 29 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 38 33 30 29 27 27 29 29 30 31 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 14 10 9 10 12 16 13 16 40 65 88 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -1 4 2 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 2 0 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 298 297 292 296 278 283 280 272 231 230 231 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.7 25.8 23.8 18.2 18.9 17.0 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 158 160 163 159 164 113 100 79 81 77 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 125 128 130 133 130 133 96 88 74 75 72 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.9 -51.9 -50.7 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 6 4 7 3 6 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 56 55 56 57 61 58 55 48 38 44 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 26 23 21 16 14 11 9 11 12 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 9 21 14 4 -7 -39 -43 14 63 133 162 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 -4 7 18 1 -6 5 23 -1 47 25 8 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 17 17 14 10 19 10 -39 -195 -279 -246 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -40 -78 -102 -167 -229 -414 -521 -459 -204 -3 15 133 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.7 33.7 34.1 34.5 36.0 37.8 39.5 41.2 42.7 44.3 46.1 47.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.5 80.0 80.5 81.1 81.6 82.5 82.2 80.4 76.5 70.7 64.2 57.2 50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 14 20 24 25 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 11 5 4 4 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -7. -21. -34. -41. -45. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -4. -6. -11. -17. -24. -29. -28. -28. -30. -29. -28. -27. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -14. -20. -32. -45. -51. -54. -55. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.6 79.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.5% 9.1% 7.7% 7.5% 10.4% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.1% 2.2% 1.6% 0.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.5% 3.8% 3.1% 2.6% 4.0% 3.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 38 33 30 29 27 27 29 29 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 39 36 35 33 33 35 35 36 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 35 35 37 37 38 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 32 34 34 35 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT