* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/14/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 73 70 69 67 60 53 51 46 41 41 40 39 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 75 63 51 43 36 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 75 63 51 42 36 30 28 27 27 29 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 10 17 16 13 15 15 16 15 20 34 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 5 0 -2 3 0 1 -2 -2 -1 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 262 257 270 279 272 292 278 276 281 292 253 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 26.3 26.1 24.1 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 161 163 161 161 163 166 165 166 117 117 101 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 129 130 128 128 131 134 133 134 98 99 87 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.6 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 6 5 8 4 7 3 6 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 58 60 59 60 58 60 55 61 58 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 31 28 28 27 22 17 15 12 11 13 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -6 2 5 7 15 6 -8 -34 -49 -15 58 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 17 -1 -12 5 13 4 0 -1 25 1 39 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 1 6 1 13 20 19 15 21 3 3 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -3 -19 -28 -48 -77 -140 -267 -421 -543 -519 -356 -246 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 34.1 34.0 34.0 33.9 34.0 34.8 36.0 37.6 39.5 41.2 42.8 44.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.9 78.4 78.9 79.3 79.7 80.7 81.8 82.7 82.6 81.2 78.4 74.3 70.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 5 6 7 9 12 15 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 31 28 20 10 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -17. -19. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -14. -23. -28. -33. -37. -34. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -15. -22. -24. -29. -34. -34. -35. -36. -38. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 34.1 77.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 410.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 12.1% 8.5% 7.6% 7.5% 9.0% 6.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.1% 2.9% 2.5% 1.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.4% 3.8% 3.4% 2.9% 3.7% 2.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 63 51 43 36 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 75 74 62 54 47 41 39 38 38 39 40 41 41 41 41 41 41 12HR AGO 75 72 71 63 56 50 48 47 47 48 49 50 50 50 50 50 50 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 58 52 50 49 49 50 51 52 52 52 52 52 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT