* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 32 38 45 51 57 63 70 76 83 89 91 93 96 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 32 38 45 51 57 63 70 76 83 89 91 93 96 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 29 31 35 40 46 54 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 6 5 12 7 12 6 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 1 0 5 2 1 0 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 355 25 61 55 61 57 35 17 11 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 158 157 154 152 153 150 157 157 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 161 156 156 151 147 149 145 153 152 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 49 51 51 55 57 57 58 59 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 35 40 47 44 46 47 32 33 10 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 7 14 5 25 31 22 6 -3 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 -1 1 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 361 333 333 345 322 288 292 200 153 273 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.3 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.9 66.3 67.6 68.8 70.0 72.1 74.2 76.3 78.4 80.7 82.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 58 53 59 66 66 90 48 72 62 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 40. 42. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 33. 40. 46. 53. 59. 61. 63. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 64.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.88 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 13.4% 8.8% 6.5% 6.1% 9.7% 11.7% 18.7% Logistic: 2.5% 10.1% 6.9% 6.1% 2.8% 7.7% 9.7% 20.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.7% Consensus: 2.2% 8.1% 5.4% 4.2% 3.0% 5.9% 7.3% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 30 32 38 45 51 57 63 70 76 83 89 91 93 96 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 32 38 45 51 57 63 70 76 83 89 91 93 96 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 35 42 48 54 60 67 73 80 86 88 90 93 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 35 41 47 53 60 66 73 79 81 83 86 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT