* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 39 41 44 42 40 35 35 33 32 32 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 39 41 44 42 40 35 35 33 32 32 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 34 34 36 36 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 27 26 27 29 37 35 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -3 -1 -4 1 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 222 221 226 232 231 230 239 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.0 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 126 126 126 130 130 124 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 103 102 102 108 109 105 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -55.6 -55.4 -55.8 -56.3 -56.5 -56.8 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -1.0 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 41 41 42 47 43 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 11 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 101 116 126 125 41 -6 -52 -77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 30 25 11 11 -13 -9 -15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -6 -3 -5 0 3 -1 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1687 1717 1748 1769 1790 1779 1725 1682 1665 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 32.8 32.4 32.3 32.1 32.5 33.6 35.0 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.3 44.4 44.6 44.4 44.3 43.5 42.2 40.4 38.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 2 2 2 6 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 6 6 6 8 7 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -7. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -36. -40. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 7. 5. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.1 44.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.30 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.15 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 6.3% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 37 39 41 44 42 40 35 35 33 32 32 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 43 41 39 34 34 32 31 31 29 27 26 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 38 36 34 29 29 27 26 26 24 22 21 21 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 28 26 21 21 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT