* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 82 81 79 73 67 59 51 46 41 38 39 39 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 85 82 82 63 52 37 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 85 81 79 62 51 36 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 8 10 20 17 18 19 15 17 18 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 0 3 6 -4 2 -1 0 -1 0 -1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 280 255 263 257 292 284 289 274 271 284 285 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 26.8 25.3 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 152 157 159 159 162 166 164 164 123 110 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 122 125 127 127 130 132 132 132 104 94 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -49.8 -49.8 -50.2 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 9 9 6 8 4 7 3 6 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 58 60 59 61 63 60 60 59 61 59 64 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 33 31 29 27 23 18 15 13 12 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -10 1 5 17 17 18 16 -4 -25 -45 39 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 5 22 19 -7 17 20 3 10 4 26 13 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 2 -1 0 4 17 12 20 14 33 13 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 85 54 7 -24 -36 -66 -152 -259 -382 -505 -479 -325 -345 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.2 34.3 34.3 34.2 34.1 34.3 34.8 35.8 37.3 39.3 41.7 44.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.5 77.1 77.6 78.1 78.5 79.4 80.4 81.6 82.2 82.3 80.8 77.8 74.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 14 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 24 25 29 30 9 4 5 5 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -24. -26. -28. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -27. -33. -37. -39. -33. -32. -32. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -4. -6. -12. -18. -26. -34. -39. -44. -47. -46. -46. -48. -48. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 34.0 76.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 488.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 11.8% 8.5% 7.5% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 5.0% 3.4% 2.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.7% 4.0% 3.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 8( 17) 0( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 82 82 63 52 37 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 85 84 84 65 54 39 32 30 29 29 30 31 32 32 32 32 32 12HR AGO 85 82 81 62 51 36 29 27 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 64 49 42 40 39 39 40 41 42 42 42 42 42 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 51 44 42 41 41 42 43 44 44 44 44 44 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT