* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 31 36 41 47 50 55 59 64 70 75 77 80 84 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 31 36 41 47 50 55 59 64 70 75 77 80 84 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 30 30 32 35 39 44 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 16 17 16 11 9 12 9 13 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 3 6 1 5 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 305 315 333 355 11 52 46 39 6 360 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 158 156 151 151 147 150 149 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 162 162 158 156 148 147 143 145 143 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 13 12 12 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 44 47 48 53 55 58 59 58 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 30 41 50 46 50 48 28 25 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -19 -6 -5 1 47 57 21 6 4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -3 -1 1 0 1 0 -2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 467 400 347 334 358 280 328 291 212 213 320 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.6 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.5 64.0 65.5 66.9 68.3 70.9 73.2 75.4 77.4 79.4 81.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 53 59 51 54 68 77 62 58 61 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -4. 1. 6. 12. 15. 20. 24. 29. 35. 40. 42. 45. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 62.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.47 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.86 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 11.3% 7.4% 5.9% 5.6% 9.2% 10.5% 16.5% Logistic: 1.0% 1.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% 1.1% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.3% 2.9% 2.2% 1.9% 3.4% 3.9% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 31 30 31 36 41 47 50 55 59 64 70 75 77 80 84 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 32 37 42 48 51 56 60 65 71 76 78 81 85 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 31 36 41 47 50 55 59 64 70 75 77 80 84 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 31 36 42 45 50 54 59 65 70 72 75 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT