* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 44 46 47 46 41 35 27 26 25 22 20 19 18 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 44 46 47 46 41 35 27 26 25 22 20 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 42 44 47 47 45 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 16 17 32 30 36 41 44 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 312 279 237 212 215 221 227 229 237 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.5 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 132 131 130 129 132 132 127 120 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 107 106 105 104 108 110 108 103 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.2 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -55.0 -55.2 -55.8 -56.0 -56.1 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 41 45 46 49 46 44 45 42 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 14 13 13 12 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 8 6 55 106 121 139 95 -13 -52 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 27 21 21 37 13 25 15 -3 -13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 -3 -2 -4 -10 -10 -3 0 -5 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1648 1662 1677 1699 1721 1741 1735 1715 1720 1780 1863 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.0 33.6 33.3 33.0 32.8 33.1 33.9 35.0 36.4 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.4 42.8 43.3 43.5 43.7 43.7 43.1 41.8 39.7 36.7 33.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 3 2 1 5 9 12 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 12 12 11 10 11 9 5 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -6. -13. -19. -26. -30. -34. -39. -43. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -25. -26. -26. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -5. -13. -14. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.3 42.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.9 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 44 44 46 47 46 41 35 27 26 25 22 20 19 18 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 42 44 45 44 39 33 25 24 23 20 18 17 16 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 40 41 40 35 29 21 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 33 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT