* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 98 98 98 96 90 80 74 67 60 58 53 52 54 53 52 V (KT) LAND 100 98 98 98 98 96 60 41 32 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 100 97 96 96 96 93 59 40 31 28 27 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 11 11 13 10 11 19 18 18 15 12 15 25 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 -4 1 -3 3 -4 0 -3 5 2 3 0 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 184 178 202 205 232 240 250 289 282 300 283 289 277 270 274 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.7 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 156 161 159 155 161 161 161 167 167 168 165 163 128 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 131 133 129 123 128 128 130 134 134 134 132 131 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -50.2 -49.8 -49.6 -49.5 -50.0 -50.6 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 10 11 10 7 9 6 8 4 7 4 8 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 54 53 56 59 59 61 58 57 53 56 50 46 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 36 36 37 36 33 27 25 20 16 14 11 12 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -11 -14 -21 -9 -7 3 -1 10 17 3 -8 -11 9 -23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 2 48 55 39 17 1 3 19 5 19 -15 -1 -15 -26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 0 13 11 4 2 3 1 7 7 21 15 9 1 18 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 475 351 230 156 93 6 -35 -38 -109 -190 -275 -389 -520 -590 -613 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.3 33.0 33.5 33.9 34.2 34.2 34.0 34.0 34.2 34.7 35.5 36.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.2 74.2 75.2 75.9 76.7 77.7 78.4 79.1 80.1 81.3 82.3 83.1 83.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 6 3 3 3 5 5 5 6 8 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 39 37 50 33 26 31 26 4 5 5 5 5 5 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -9. -16. -21. -25. -28. -29. -32. -34. -38. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -5. -12. -17. -25. -33. -37. -40. -38. -30. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -10. -20. -26. -33. -40. -42. -47. -48. -46. -47. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 31.5 73.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 774.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 8.7% 6.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.1% 2.7% 2.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 21( 51) 19( 61) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 98 98 98 98 96 60 41 32 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 18HR AGO 100 99 99 99 99 97 61 42 33 29 28 28 28 29 30 31 31 12HR AGO 100 97 96 96 96 94 58 39 30 26 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 90 88 52 33 24 20 19 19 19 20 21 22 22 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 43 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 98 89 83 80 78 42 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 98 98 89 83 79 43 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS