* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 109 109 110 105 99 89 85 77 71 62 56 55 53 61 64 V (KT) LAND 110 109 109 109 110 105 99 89 69 44 32 29 27 27 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 107 107 107 103 95 87 69 44 32 28 27 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 12 12 7 12 13 19 19 24 18 21 21 19 22 32 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -6 -9 -2 1 1 0 1 -3 -2 -1 0 2 0 3 7 SHEAR DIR 189 190 177 193 227 245 265 274 275 284 291 298 298 290 274 273 264 SST (C) 29.6 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 154 155 155 159 158 155 157 159 162 165 167 168 164 160 160 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 134 133 130 131 127 122 124 127 130 133 134 134 130 125 125 101 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -49.9 -49.7 -49.5 -49.8 -50.0 -50.3 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -51.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 11 8 10 7 8 5 7 4 7 5 10 2 1 700-500 MB RH 45 46 49 51 54 56 57 58 56 53 53 53 57 49 41 34 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 35 34 38 35 34 30 30 27 24 17 14 14 15 22 29 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -16 -12 -19 -23 -17 -8 -8 22 17 27 -13 -7 -14 -2 -61 -73 200 MB DIV 37 5 -10 27 51 24 19 -2 16 3 12 -6 16 14 -11 -22 -27 700-850 TADV 3 -6 -1 9 9 2 0 6 7 6 16 27 24 1 4 -7 -26 LAND (KM) 648 513 380 285 197 91 25 10 -10 -81 -164 -261 -366 -483 -559 -582 -578 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.2 32.0 32.6 33.1 33.8 33.9 33.8 33.8 33.8 34.1 34.6 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.9 73.0 74.1 75.0 75.8 76.9 77.7 78.2 78.9 79.9 81.0 82.2 82.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 9 7 5 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 39 36 45 30 23 25 31 9 5 5 5 5 4 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -13. -22. -29. -35. -39. -41. -43. -46. -49. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 2. -0. -2. -7. -9. -15. -20. -30. -34. -33. -32. -22. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. -5. -11. -21. -25. -33. -39. -48. -54. -55. -57. -49. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 30.4 71.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 908.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 7.3% 4.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.2% 1.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 2.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 28( 49) 29( 64) 27( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 109 109 109 110 105 99 89 69 44 32 29 27 27 27 28 29 18HR AGO 110 109 109 109 110 105 99 89 69 44 32 29 27 27 27 28 29 12HR AGO 110 107 106 106 107 102 96 86 66 41 29 26 24 24 24 25 26 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 101 96 90 80 60 35 23 20 18 18 18 19 20 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 86 80 70 50 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 109 100 94 91 87 81 71 51 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 109 109 100 94 90 84 74 54 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS