* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 43 43 41 42 44 47 50 55 61 66 70 72 75 77 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 43 43 41 42 44 47 50 55 61 66 70 72 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 50 46 44 42 40 37 35 34 34 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 23 23 24 26 20 19 12 11 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 8 1 2 7 0 4 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 314 314 302 300 316 318 350 343 31 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.6 30.0 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 145 152 155 164 172 158 153 152 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 145 152 155 164 172 158 151 150 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 50 51 51 50 52 54 60 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 15 17 14 13 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 22 21 24 18 15 21 32 35 42 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -3 4 -16 2 31 -15 -5 -3 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -7 -11 -10 -10 -5 -3 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 960 828 704 594 510 463 339 331 291 316 331 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.0 54.4 55.8 57.2 58.7 61.8 64.9 67.9 70.6 73.1 75.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 18 21 29 41 46 64 53 68 79 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -7. -9. -8. -6. -3. 0. 5. 11. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.5 53.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.18 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 7.5% 4.9% 4.7% 0.0% 6.9% 6.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.6% 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 2.4% 2.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 44 43 43 41 42 44 47 50 55 61 66 70 72 75 77 18HR AGO 50 49 46 45 45 43 44 46 49 52 57 63 68 72 74 77 79 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 45 43 44 46 49 52 57 63 68 72 74 77 79 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 38 39 41 44 47 52 58 63 67 69 72 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT