* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 3 7 10 22 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 7 8 9 12 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 4 358 235 245 219 221 239 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.1 24.0 23.6 23.5 24.1 24.5 24.7 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 103 102 97 96 101 104 106 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 31 31 31 32 35 39 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 9 9 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 57 47 51 47 37 37 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -15 -10 -1 0 5 14 30 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 0 1 0 -1 -2 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1265 1341 1420 1489 1559 1654 1706 1770 1820 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.9 22.8 22.5 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.0 127.0 127.9 128.7 129.5 130.8 131.5 132.1 132.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 5 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -18. -24. -34. -38. -40. -43. -46. -49. -52. -56. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.3 126.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##