* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 73 67 63 51 39 29 23 18 22 23 22 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 79 73 67 63 51 39 29 23 18 22 23 22 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 79 73 67 62 55 48 42 37 35 35 36 37 38 39 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 20 23 33 43 43 46 43 38 27 30 35 42 49 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 10 10 12 8 10 3 7 2 2 0 1 2 3 9 13 19 SHEAR DIR 236 243 230 220 215 210 212 217 230 234 232 258 268 238 221 188 173 SST (C) 24.9 24.8 25.0 25.0 25.3 25.4 26.0 26.9 27.4 25.7 23.9 21.9 19.7 17.8 16.0 14.9 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 105 105 108 110 116 126 132 114 100 89 82 77 73 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 97 97 97 100 101 106 114 119 101 88 80 75 71 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.7 -54.9 -56.1 -57.2 -56.3 -53.8 -52.3 -51.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 60 56 51 46 43 43 47 52 55 48 50 50 50 53 57 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 33 32 31 28 26 25 23 21 24 24 24 22 20 19 14 850 MB ENV VOR 49 53 64 54 52 27 52 69 81 40 -17 -52 -59 63 116 109 122 200 MB DIV 61 69 85 91 56 15 39 56 41 36 8 9 25 47 73 79 87 700-850 TADV 9 9 12 14 15 19 22 17 31 21 2 11 43 38 -23 -145 -98 LAND (KM) 1914 1992 2043 2076 2114 2149 2160 2201 2092 1941 1809 1439 1077 708 279 27 63 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.3 23.7 26.7 29.9 33.4 37.1 40.1 42.4 44.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.2 35.9 36.5 36.9 37.4 37.8 37.6 37.1 35.7 33.5 30.5 26.7 22.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 13 16 18 19 19 19 19 21 21 19 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. -37. -42. -47. -51. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -21. -24. -25. -24. -24. -22. -22. -24. -28. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -19. -24. -21. -22. -22. -25. -26. -26. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -22. -34. -46. -56. -62. -67. -63. -62. -63. -69. -75. -82. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.6 35.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 583.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 4( 14) 0( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 79 73 67 63 51 39 29 23 18 22 23 22 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 78 72 68 56 44 34 28 23 27 28 27 21 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 71 59 47 37 31 26 30 31 30 24 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 71 59 47 37 31 26 30 31 30 24 DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 54 42 32 26 21 25 26 25 19 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT