* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 57 55 49 47 46 47 49 51 57 62 67 68 71 71 V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 57 55 49 47 46 47 49 51 57 62 67 68 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 60 58 56 50 44 40 38 37 37 39 42 47 53 60 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 24 28 29 29 26 24 21 21 18 13 11 11 12 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 9 11 10 4 5 1 1 2 4 2 4 -3 -2 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 310 300 303 317 319 309 317 317 335 330 351 18 26 336 348 314 318 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 140 144 150 158 162 160 153 151 150 147 143 147 151 153 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 138 142 149 158 162 160 152 148 146 142 139 142 144 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 46 48 50 50 53 55 51 52 51 54 59 65 66 67 69 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 15 14 13 11 10 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 47 39 26 20 22 14 4 11 9 23 17 30 32 19 1 -9 -15 200 MB DIV 23 21 18 13 10 -14 5 4 2 -15 6 12 19 7 20 18 22 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -4 -6 -8 -4 -11 -9 -8 -1 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1057 1019 940 816 701 529 492 335 269 289 248 281 222 210 311 270 289 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.6 52.0 53.3 54.6 56.0 58.7 61.5 64.3 67.1 69.8 72.2 74.2 76.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 12 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 15 16 19 24 43 49 52 58 56 71 76 44 74 52 75 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -7. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -20. -22. -23. -24. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -13. -14. -13. -11. -9. -3. 3. 7. 8. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 50.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.11 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 9.5% 6.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.1% 0.7% 1.3% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.6% 2.5% 2.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 59 57 55 49 47 46 47 49 51 57 62 67 68 71 71 18HR AGO 60 59 58 56 54 48 46 45 46 48 50 56 61 66 67 70 70 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 52 46 44 43 44 46 48 54 59 64 65 68 68 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 42 40 39 40 42 44 50 55 60 61 64 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT