* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 60 59 54 51 49 51 51 54 58 64 69 69 71 72 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 60 59 54 51 49 51 51 54 58 64 69 69 71 72 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 61 61 61 56 50 46 42 40 40 42 47 53 59 65 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 23 28 25 28 25 22 14 19 12 11 6 14 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 7 8 10 6 0 1 0 2 0 1 3 1 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 312 315 297 297 313 305 307 310 330 347 11 29 26 11 340 339 345 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.9 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 139 142 151 160 161 159 155 151 149 149 143 147 150 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 132 136 139 149 159 160 157 152 147 145 145 138 142 143 146 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 10 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 47 47 48 50 52 55 55 53 55 56 61 63 67 68 69 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 18 18 19 17 15 13 13 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 65 50 41 30 21 15 -3 4 1 0 0 3 10 14 3 -19 -34 200 MB DIV 29 22 15 20 12 -10 15 -5 13 -6 -8 -19 5 34 0 15 25 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -7 -6 -8 -7 -7 -14 -10 -5 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1128 1071 1026 991 874 667 530 517 337 258 267 214 236 202 175 254 264 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.0 50.3 51.5 52.8 54.0 56.5 59.1 61.7 64.1 66.5 68.8 71.1 73.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 30 16 16 18 27 46 46 48 63 56 63 87 43 66 57 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -8. -5. -2. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -17. -19. -22. -22. -23. -24. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -9. -11. -9. -9. -6. -2. 4. 9. 9. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 49.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.27 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 12.0% 8.4% 7.1% 6.6% 8.0% 0.0% 6.7% Logistic: 2.2% 1.9% 1.3% 1.7% 0.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.7% 3.3% 3.0% 2.5% 3.2% 0.3% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 61 60 59 54 51 49 51 51 54 58 64 69 69 71 72 18HR AGO 60 59 60 59 58 53 50 48 50 50 53 57 63 68 68 70 71 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 54 49 46 44 46 46 49 53 59 64 64 66 67 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 44 41 39 41 41 44 48 54 59 59 61 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT