* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 54 51 48 42 39 39 39 40 38 36 35 36 33 33 V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 54 51 48 43 40 39 39 40 38 37 36 36 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 56 54 50 46 41 37 35 34 34 35 36 38 41 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 17 18 22 26 31 35 36 34 23 14 23 18 22 23 36 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 8 6 5 9 5 -2 -3 -4 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 247 250 251 256 263 269 266 273 269 267 295 327 315 309 274 271 261 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.2 27.0 27.7 27.6 28.0 27.9 27.6 28.5 28.3 28.6 28.3 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 130 135 136 134 142 141 145 144 142 151 149 152 149 150 150 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -54.3 -55.2 -55.5 -55.9 -55.9 -56.1 -56.0 -56.4 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 28 28 27 28 30 30 34 41 40 44 46 51 53 50 49 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 16 14 15 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 20 24 39 43 48 60 64 61 72 73 68 61 51 50 50 43 49 200 MB DIV 3 0 4 2 -29 1 -26 -19 -20 -9 -11 -2 -17 -10 6 24 5 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 0 -2 -9 -4 -4 3 7 3 -4 -9 -6 -8 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 591 490 393 290 194 9 106 200 405 621 877 1171 1460 1750 2039 2316 2602 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.4 21.0 20.6 20.3 20.3 20.6 21.2 22.1 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.7 150.8 151.8 153.0 154.1 156.4 158.8 161.3 163.8 166.1 168.7 171.6 174.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 14 14 13 13 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 5 8 7 3 28 27 40 18 21 35 32 24 20 24 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -21. -22. -24. -24. -25. -26. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -0. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -21. -21. -21. -20. -22. -24. -25. -24. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.9 149.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 688.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##