* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 61 60 59 57 57 55 59 61 65 67 69 68 68 68 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 61 60 59 57 57 55 59 61 65 67 69 68 68 68 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 59 60 60 59 56 52 47 45 44 45 48 53 56 60 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 11 15 24 24 26 23 18 12 15 14 17 14 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 9 13 10 10 4 2 2 1 2 7 4 5 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 1 323 319 307 285 306 308 310 306 330 12 36 56 27 42 18 29 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 130 131 134 145 149 153 155 156 152 151 147 142 144 144 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 125 127 128 131 142 148 152 154 155 150 147 142 137 138 138 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 10 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 51 51 56 55 53 51 53 53 56 59 64 68 71 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 19 19 18 18 17 14 14 12 11 8 8 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 83 74 68 60 50 34 22 6 12 18 23 23 23 28 31 26 14 200 MB DIV 19 19 21 30 30 34 9 36 -9 21 -27 8 8 16 40 42 32 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -3 -5 -6 -8 -7 -14 -10 -4 -3 -1 -4 -6 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1264 1192 1133 1078 1037 879 675 522 506 310 270 287 229 267 245 246 341 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.2 47.6 48.9 50.2 51.5 54.0 56.5 59.3 62.0 64.6 67.2 69.7 71.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 20 22 16 19 25 42 40 58 57 47 63 78 46 66 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -15. -17. -21. -21. -23. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -1. 1. 5. 7. 9. 8. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.5 46.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 427.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 12.4% 8.5% 7.0% 6.7% 8.5% 6.3% 7.3% Logistic: 2.4% 3.7% 2.4% 2.0% 1.1% 1.6% 1.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.6% 3.9% 3.0% 2.6% 3.4% 2.5% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 61 61 60 59 57 57 55 59 61 65 67 69 68 68 68 18HR AGO 60 59 60 60 59 58 56 56 54 58 60 64 66 68 67 67 67 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 55 54 52 52 50 54 56 60 62 64 63 63 63 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 48 46 46 44 48 50 54 56 58 57 57 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT