* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 88 86 76 66 55 48 42 42 43 47 52 49 50 47 V (KT) LAND 90 90 90 88 86 76 66 55 48 42 42 43 47 52 49 50 47 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 88 84 79 71 62 55 50 46 45 46 51 55 56 55 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 6 8 9 15 18 26 36 36 39 29 35 30 20 21 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 5 5 11 8 9 2 1 -4 -1 -2 0 1 9 4 SHEAR DIR 25 283 260 223 205 213 202 212 209 201 210 220 243 252 246 222 220 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.6 25.5 26.0 26.7 27.2 27.3 26.9 25.4 24.1 22.4 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 114 110 109 107 110 110 115 122 128 130 126 111 101 91 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 114 108 103 102 99 101 101 105 110 114 114 111 97 88 80 76 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 70 66 55 49 42 37 39 37 41 43 45 46 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 35 34 35 32 30 28 27 25 25 25 27 31 30 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 50 38 40 39 43 51 51 41 54 66 77 113 91 69 34 92 23 200 MB DIV 52 62 91 107 53 33 38 36 28 61 37 40 42 16 27 63 13 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -2 1 0 5 9 10 11 3 -4 7 11 8 7 -6 -59 LAND (KM) 1546 1665 1784 1884 1983 2141 2207 2265 2314 2367 2216 2040 1969 1945 1602 1243 888 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.5 20.2 22.2 24.6 27.3 30.1 32.8 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.9 33.0 34.1 35.0 35.9 37.3 38.2 38.9 39.4 39.6 39.0 37.5 35.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 11 13 14 15 15 18 18 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -15. -22. -28. -33. -36. -38. -40. -44. -47. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -17. -18. -16. -10. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -14. -24. -35. -42. -48. -48. -47. -43. -38. -41. -40. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.3 31.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 4.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 10( 30) 5( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 90 88 86 76 66 55 48 42 42 43 47 52 49 50 47 18HR AGO 90 89 89 87 85 75 65 54 47 41 41 42 46 51 48 49 46 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 82 72 62 51 44 38 38 39 43 48 45 46 43 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 68 58 47 40 34 34 35 39 44 41 42 39 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 61 51 40 33 27 27 28 32 37 34 35 32 IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 66 56 45 38 32 32 33 37 42 39 40 37 IN 12HR 90 90 90 81 75 71 61 50 43 37 37 38 42 47 44 45 42