* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 96 97 95 86 75 66 54 43 42 43 51 52 57 56 53 V (KT) LAND 90 94 96 97 95 86 75 66 54 43 42 43 51 52 57 56 53 V (KT) LGEM 90 95 96 93 88 78 69 61 55 50 49 50 55 61 64 64 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 2 5 7 14 15 20 30 38 37 32 21 26 21 21 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 6 6 7 8 6 9 0 -3 -4 2 0 0 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 351 24 300 203 178 235 208 224 208 219 207 230 228 248 248 256 266 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.5 25.5 26.3 26.9 27.6 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 121 115 112 109 108 109 110 118 125 132 134 128 123 122 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 121 116 109 106 101 100 101 102 108 112 115 113 106 100 98 98 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -54.2 -54.4 -55.4 -55.3 -55.9 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.5 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 71 69 62 54 48 42 43 43 40 43 42 40 32 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 35 35 33 30 31 27 24 26 27 31 30 33 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR 52 45 35 32 36 39 44 41 36 53 63 94 119 93 55 -18 -73 200 MB DIV 55 60 59 78 94 13 32 29 28 42 28 8 32 20 16 -10 -8 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -4 3 5 2 5 10 10 5 0 12 1 11 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1440 1568 1697 1810 1924 2112 2166 2260 2365 2422 2319 2048 1869 1784 1762 1798 1836 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 17.4 18.8 20.6 22.8 25.5 28.3 31.0 33.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.9 32.1 33.3 34.3 35.4 37.1 38.3 39.2 39.9 40.4 40.7 40.7 40.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 9 9 11 13 14 14 12 9 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 9 7 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -20. -26. -31. -34. -36. -39. -42. -44. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -7. -12. -18. -17. -17. -12. -12. -9. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 5. -4. -15. -24. -36. -47. -48. -47. -39. -38. -33. -34. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.7 30.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.2% 15.4% 8.4% 4.7% 2.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 29.3% 15.3% 7.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.1% 16.6% 5.3% 2.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 19( 29) 17( 41) 10( 47) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 94 96 97 95 86 75 66 54 43 42 43 51 52 57 56 53 18HR AGO 90 89 91 92 90 81 70 61 49 38 37 38 46 47 52 51 48 12HR AGO 90 87 86 87 85 76 65 56 44 33 32 33 41 42 47 46 43 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 69 58 49 37 26 25 26 34 35 40 39 36 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 62 51 42 30 19 18 19 27 28 33 32 29 IN 6HR 90 94 85 79 76 70 59 50 38 27 26 27 35 36 41 40 37 IN 12HR 90 94 96 87 81 77 66 57 45 34 33 34 42 43 48 47 44