* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 75 72 66 59 52 45 43 39 36 37 37 37 40 41 V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 75 72 66 59 52 45 43 39 36 37 37 37 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 78 77 75 71 65 57 51 47 43 40 39 39 41 45 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 5 12 15 18 24 31 34 37 42 34 26 15 24 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 6 8 8 9 7 0 -3 -3 -2 -2 -5 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 326 299 242 231 246 259 257 265 269 270 256 246 246 263 286 297 280 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.5 27.4 27.2 27.7 27.5 28.1 28.3 27.7 28.4 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 127 126 128 138 136 142 140 146 148 142 150 146 150 150 150 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -55.9 -56.2 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 27 27 28 28 30 30 34 35 40 42 44 46 50 55 59 63 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 17 17 17 15 14 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 10 15 26 24 29 42 53 56 71 66 70 66 66 60 45 43 39 200 MB DIV 3 -2 4 -8 6 10 -26 -6 -10 8 17 22 11 22 8 26 18 700-850 TADV 3 3 5 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 1 3 7 11 6 7 0 0 LAND (KM) 795 700 606 511 418 208 26 122 216 395 619 862 1118 1389 1654 1913 2182 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.0 20.6 20.2 19.9 19.7 19.8 20.3 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.5 148.5 149.4 150.4 151.3 153.5 155.8 158.2 160.7 163.3 165.8 168.4 171.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 1 3 10 5 27 19 40 27 20 26 30 26 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -21. -23. -23. -24. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -3. -9. -16. -23. -30. -32. -35. -39. -38. -38. -38. -35. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.7 147.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 870.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 1.3% 2.9% 2.3% 1.4% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##