* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 95 95 94 85 76 67 56 45 41 44 49 51 56 56 58 V (KT) LAND 90 94 95 95 94 85 76 67 56 45 41 44 49 51 56 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 90 94 95 94 91 81 71 62 55 50 47 49 52 56 60 63 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 2 3 4 12 10 16 23 34 33 32 25 20 8 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 4 9 7 9 11 9 7 0 -6 -2 2 1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 8 1 64 122 215 223 209 193 200 200 198 211 230 225 283 273 309 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.5 25.5 26.0 26.4 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.0 26.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 125 122 115 111 107 109 110 115 119 131 133 131 124 118 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 126 121 117 109 104 99 101 101 106 108 117 115 110 103 98 91 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -53.5 -54.5 -55.1 -55.0 -54.7 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 68 71 71 72 69 65 57 50 47 44 47 50 46 42 44 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 34 34 31 31 30 27 24 23 25 28 27 30 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 55 46 41 36 39 39 44 51 44 65 83 89 64 26 -17 -42 -29 200 MB DIV 75 76 39 45 62 23 5 48 29 20 46 39 12 11 9 3 -9 700-850 TADV -5 -12 -8 -6 1 3 2 8 11 14 6 9 18 9 5 1 0 LAND (KM) 1280 1418 1557 1680 1804 2011 2151 2199 2317 2404 2465 2183 1955 1827 1748 1722 1711 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.7 18.0 19.5 21.6 24.0 26.7 29.6 32.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.4 30.7 32.0 33.1 34.3 36.2 37.6 38.7 39.6 40.3 40.7 40.8 40.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 10 12 13 14 13 11 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 7 9 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -18. -25. -30. -33. -36. -38. -41. -43. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -14. -19. -22. -19. -16. -17. -13. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 4. -5. -14. -23. -34. -45. -49. -46. -41. -39. -34. -34. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.4 29.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 383.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 17.7% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.4% 18.1% 9.6% 4.9% 3.1% 4.1% 2.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 28.7% 23.6% 8.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.3% 19.8% 10.5% 2.2% 1.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/10/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 17( 27) 16( 39) 10( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 94 95 95 94 85 76 67 56 45 41 44 49 51 56 56 58 18HR AGO 90 89 90 90 89 80 71 62 51 40 36 39 44 46 51 51 53 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 85 76 67 58 47 36 32 35 40 42 47 47 49 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 70 61 52 41 30 26 29 34 36 41 41 43 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 62 53 44 33 22 18 21 26 28 33 33 35 IN 6HR 90 94 85 79 76 69 60 51 40 29 25 28 33 35 40 40 42 IN 12HR 90 94 95 86 80 76 67 58 47 36 32 35 40 42 47 47 49