* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 111 113 118 120 125 127 126 124 116 108 103 97 88 82 76 V (KT) LAND 100 106 111 113 118 120 125 127 126 124 80 45 32 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 100 108 114 119 123 131 134 129 123 112 73 42 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 3 9 10 15 20 23 25 24 18 18 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -6 -7 -4 -4 -5 -3 -8 0 -3 1 -4 -4 -8 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 202 114 98 103 72 130 195 214 209 240 245 261 273 271 293 268 281 SST (C) 28.8 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.6 29.2 29.7 28.9 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 156 154 160 164 160 164 156 164 149 160 157 155 154 154 153 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 141 140 146 150 147 147 137 139 124 129 125 121 119 118 117 116 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.0 -51.5 -50.5 -50.7 -49.7 -49.3 -49.2 -49.6 -49.7 -50.7 -50.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 13 10 10 7 9 4 8 4 8 3 700-500 MB RH 51 52 50 49 51 48 51 48 52 53 57 56 52 48 48 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 26 31 30 34 36 37 40 39 37 36 33 28 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 21 11 23 9 29 4 11 6 15 19 29 57 47 55 96 200 MB DIV 7 1 -15 -20 0 -24 22 4 38 25 52 21 15 2 6 -1 13 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -5 0 3 -2 4 -1 10 5 2 2 2 -1 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 974 928 895 884 899 936 800 500 266 75 -73 -157 -226 -259 -273 -276 -283 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.3 25.6 26.1 26.5 27.9 29.5 31.1 32.5 33.7 34.6 35.2 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.5 60.7 61.9 63.3 64.7 67.8 70.7 73.4 75.6 77.2 78.4 79.2 79.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 15 15 13 10 8 5 4 3 1 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 41 36 29 36 43 41 39 34 43 21 21 5 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -13. -18. -22. -24. -27. -31. -34. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 4. 4. 8. 11. 13. 16. 14. 11. 9. 4. -3. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 13. 18. 20. 25. 27. 26. 24. 16. 8. 3. -3. -12. -18. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 24.9 59.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 9.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.93 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.14 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 702.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.20 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.5% 26.5% 23.4% 17.9% 11.0% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.0% 31.7% 27.1% 14.7% 7.0% 17.1% 18.8% 6.3% Bayesian: 34.0% 72.9% 61.3% 21.8% 7.9% 8.5% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 23.5% 43.7% 37.3% 18.1% 8.6% 14.1% 6.4% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 29( 45) 32( 62) 33( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 19 21( 36) 22( 50) 34( 67) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 106 111 113 118 120 125 127 126 124 80 45 32 29 27 27 27 18HR AGO 100 99 104 106 111 113 118 120 119 117 73 38 25 22 20 20 20 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 103 105 110 112 111 109 65 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 95 97 102 104 103 101 57 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 83 88 90 89 87 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 106 97 91 88 89 94 96 95 93 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 106 111 102 96 92 97 99 98 96 52 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS