* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 82 84 86 83 76 70 61 54 47 41 43 45 46 49 52 V (KT) LAND 75 80 82 84 86 83 76 70 61 54 47 41 43 45 46 49 52 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 83 85 85 81 72 64 57 51 46 42 42 44 48 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 3 2 2 6 14 15 19 29 37 37 32 30 26 25 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 6 8 5 8 10 11 6 -1 -1 2 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 35 19 20 141 156 242 222 217 221 205 204 199 221 218 224 216 244 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.7 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.5 25.5 26.4 27.0 27.6 27.8 27.5 26.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 127 125 121 113 110 108 110 110 119 126 133 135 130 118 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 124 121 117 106 102 101 102 102 109 114 116 115 108 98 92 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -53.0 -54.0 -54.2 -55.2 -54.9 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 70 70 71 68 64 56 54 50 51 53 53 50 47 41 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 33 33 34 33 31 31 28 27 25 22 24 27 27 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 59 53 48 42 39 33 42 47 52 48 81 76 81 74 32 -3 3 200 MB DIV 52 64 69 25 30 25 17 40 25 26 35 58 45 7 19 18 -16 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -4 -1 7 6 4 5 9 14 9 20 16 13 -1 -7 LAND (KM) 1154 1291 1429 1562 1697 1923 2099 2141 2212 2351 2469 2314 2037 1796 1604 1460 1324 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.1 17.1 18.5 20.2 22.5 25.1 28.1 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.2 29.5 30.8 32.0 33.3 35.4 37.0 38.3 39.4 40.3 40.9 41.3 41.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 10 11 13 14 15 13 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 8 10 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -22. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -0. 1. -1. -4. -5. -10. -12. -16. -21. -18. -15. -15. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 9. 11. 8. 1. -5. -14. -21. -28. -34. -32. -30. -29. -26. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.1 28.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.20 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 325.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 20.9% 14.5% 9.9% 9.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.0% 22.0% 12.2% 5.4% 3.9% 6.5% 4.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 23.1% 31.7% 10.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 15.4% 24.8% 12.4% 5.9% 5.3% 6.9% 1.5% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 10( 21) 9( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 82 84 86 83 76 70 61 54 47 41 43 45 46 49 52 18HR AGO 75 74 76 78 80 77 70 64 55 48 41 35 37 39 40 43 46 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 75 72 65 59 50 43 36 30 32 34 35 38 41 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 64 57 51 42 35 28 22 24 26 27 30 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT