* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 86 86 88 90 85 79 72 67 57 51 42 42 41 44 45 V (KT) LAND 75 81 86 86 88 90 85 79 72 67 57 51 42 42 41 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 75 83 88 91 91 88 80 73 65 59 53 48 43 38 37 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 7 12 13 15 20 33 43 48 42 37 26 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 0 0 3 4 6 13 12 10 5 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 62 52 43 66 115 184 198 218 200 208 203 213 219 223 227 231 224 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.2 27.3 27.7 27.6 27.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 131 128 123 114 114 111 110 113 117 117 129 134 132 129 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 129 125 119 109 107 104 102 105 108 107 116 116 112 107 93 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -53.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 67 69 68 69 69 69 65 57 53 52 50 52 54 54 45 43 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 34 31 32 34 31 31 29 29 26 25 22 24 24 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 67 61 55 50 41 35 39 54 74 66 57 62 47 11 -19 -52 -89 200 MB DIV 55 56 69 52 21 26 -6 6 51 27 26 30 44 22 1 -6 -15 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -5 -6 2 7 14 7 4 10 23 24 26 14 11 3 2 LAND (KM) 988 1123 1260 1397 1536 1782 1989 2120 2149 2235 2403 2488 2219 1934 1695 1508 1332 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.6 19.0 20.8 23.2 26.1 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.6 27.9 29.2 30.5 31.8 34.1 36.0 37.6 38.8 39.8 40.5 41.0 41.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 10 11 14 15 14 13 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 11 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 7 7 8 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 1. 3. -0. -1. -5. -5. -11. -12. -17. -15. -15. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 11. 13. 15. 10. 4. -3. -8. -18. -24. -33. -33. -34. -31. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.7 26.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 323.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 21.7% 16.2% 9.9% 9.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 13.7% 6.1% 1.9% 1.1% 3.4% 4.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 27.4% 33.9% 11.9% 2.1% 1.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 16.2% 23.1% 11.4% 4.6% 3.8% 5.6% 1.6% 0.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/10/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 11( 24) 12( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 86 86 88 90 85 79 72 67 57 51 42 42 41 44 45 18HR AGO 75 74 79 79 81 83 78 72 65 60 50 44 35 35 34 37 38 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 73 75 70 64 57 52 42 36 27 27 26 29 30 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 69 64 58 51 46 36 30 21 21 20 23 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 81 86 77 71 67 62 56 49 44 34 28 19 19 18 21 22