* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 63 63 61 59 55 50 41 37 32 29 25 24 24 26 V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 63 63 61 59 55 50 41 37 32 29 25 24 24 26 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 62 62 61 60 60 60 56 51 46 42 38 35 33 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 9 7 10 15 21 26 36 38 39 36 35 40 29 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 0 -2 1 7 6 11 4 0 0 2 1 -2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 341 347 287 304 296 263 254 255 263 266 266 260 257 249 255 243 235 SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.9 27.7 28.1 28.2 27.8 28.6 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 124 125 126 126 136 135 134 144 142 146 147 143 153 149 151 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 28 27 27 26 27 29 31 33 36 38 43 43 49 52 57 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 19 19 17 17 15 14 11 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 19 16 21 16 24 36 41 56 60 63 61 65 67 55 46 41 44 200 MB DIV 16 12 1 -1 -12 -12 9 -7 -20 -24 -19 12 15 5 8 19 10 700-850 TADV -2 2 3 3 1 0 0 -1 0 -8 -7 -2 1 3 6 8 7 LAND (KM) 1097 985 875 779 684 492 283 84 77 210 293 465 667 878 1164 1510 1861 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.4 20.9 20.5 20.0 19.6 19.4 19.4 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.5 145.6 146.7 147.7 148.6 150.5 152.5 154.6 156.8 159.0 161.4 163.9 166.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 12 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 0 1 1 1 13 7 9 25 30 35 28 22 32 32 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -24. -28. -33. -36. -40. -41. -41. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.7 144.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 745.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##