* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 79 84 90 97 107 110 112 112 112 109 106 99 96 93 91 V (KT) LAND 70 75 79 84 90 97 107 110 112 112 112 109 58 37 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 79 85 91 106 118 125 123 116 112 104 57 36 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 2 3 4 5 5 9 16 20 22 22 28 20 20 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 -1 -6 -7 -4 -6 -6 -7 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 259 229 220 203 117 157 108 188 183 219 222 239 245 270 258 278 250 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.5 29.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 139 145 151 160 162 164 148 153 155 152 152 151 150 151 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 124 131 136 146 149 148 132 133 131 124 120 117 116 117 118 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.1 -51.9 -51.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -49.8 -49.1 -49.2 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.4 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 8 9 6 8 5 9 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 52 53 50 49 47 48 47 49 51 52 53 53 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 24 26 26 31 31 32 34 37 38 40 38 40 43 45 850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 2 14 21 11 14 5 4 -7 -5 -12 -2 -8 25 40 78 200 MB DIV 9 -18 -18 -2 -17 -14 26 -26 29 0 48 44 43 17 29 12 29 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -4 -7 2 1 1 4 1 4 5 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1152 1096 1045 985 936 885 904 959 710 433 202 6 -92 -122 -119 -123 -134 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.6 24.7 25.0 25.2 26.0 27.0 28.3 29.7 31.3 32.8 34.2 35.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.7 57.5 58.3 59.4 60.5 63.1 66.0 69.1 71.9 74.4 76.3 77.7 78.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 10 11 13 15 14 14 12 10 7 3 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 31 39 36 33 37 39 25 38 44 23 9 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 8. 8. 10. 12. 16. 16. 17. 14. 15. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 20. 27. 37. 40. 42. 42. 42. 39. 36. 29. 26. 23. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 24.4 56.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.83 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 496.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.41 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 24.3% 18.7% 18.4% 11.6% 19.7% 21.1% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 38.0% 32.6% 18.6% 10.7% 21.8% 22.7% 16.0% Bayesian: 4.0% 19.9% 5.6% 1.3% 1.0% 5.3% 2.8% 0.8% Consensus: 10.5% 27.4% 19.0% 12.8% 7.7% 15.6% 15.5% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 12( 21) 20( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 9( 10) 5( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 79 84 90 97 107 110 112 112 112 109 58 37 30 28 27 18HR AGO 70 69 73 78 84 91 101 104 106 106 106 103 52 31 24 22 21 12HR AGO 70 67 66 71 77 84 94 97 99 99 99 96 45 24 17 15 DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 66 73 83 86 88 88 88 85 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT