* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 72 76 81 89 95 103 106 107 109 104 105 96 90 82 76 V (KT) LAND 65 68 72 76 81 89 95 103 106 107 109 104 85 50 35 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 71 75 80 92 108 120 123 117 112 106 80 48 33 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 3 5 3 3 6 8 10 12 21 27 27 29 24 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 0 0 -2 -7 -7 -5 -3 -7 -7 -8 -5 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 276 303 252 228 225 153 157 185 206 199 205 224 228 245 250 251 257 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.5 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 139 145 154 158 164 162 148 154 154 153 151 153 157 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 120 121 124 130 140 145 150 146 131 132 128 122 119 119 122 123 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -53.4 -52.6 -51.8 -51.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.2 -49.9 -49.3 -49.9 -49.7 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 7 9 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 50 52 52 52 48 50 50 52 53 55 52 52 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 24 27 29 33 34 35 39 38 41 39 39 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -9 -4 0 7 20 21 9 27 12 13 14 0 1 10 19 36 200 MB DIV -10 18 -17 -30 -9 -20 12 -9 24 7 37 41 48 21 28 44 18 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 0 -4 -6 1 0 6 0 8 5 2 6 4 5 4 LAND (KM) 1203 1150 1100 1037 981 900 901 898 872 571 324 110 -21 -83 -83 -92 -127 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.6 26.5 27.5 28.8 30.4 31.9 33.4 34.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.1 56.8 57.5 58.5 59.4 61.8 64.6 67.6 70.5 73.3 75.5 77.0 77.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 10 12 14 15 14 13 11 8 4 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 25 32 39 30 40 44 40 25 40 28 26 8 4 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 12. 12. 17. 16. 19. 15. 13. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 30. 38. 41. 42. 44. 39. 40. 31. 25. 17. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 24.4 56.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 458.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 20.2% 17.7% 13.5% 11.2% 17.0% 15.6% 18.1% Logistic: 5.7% 24.6% 17.8% 8.4% 5.2% 16.3% 14.7% 16.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 10.4% 2.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.6% Consensus: 5.8% 18.4% 12.7% 7.5% 5.5% 11.6% 10.2% 11.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 8( 13) 11( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 2( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 72 76 81 89 95 103 106 107 109 104 85 50 35 29 28 18HR AGO 65 64 68 72 77 85 91 99 102 103 105 100 81 46 31 25 24 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 70 78 84 92 95 96 98 93 74 39 24 18 17 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 60 68 74 82 85 86 88 83 64 29 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT