* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 70 73 80 87 95 100 104 106 104 103 102 96 91 86 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 70 73 80 87 95 100 104 106 104 103 90 55 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 69 72 82 96 108 118 122 114 108 102 92 52 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 2 4 2 5 5 3 8 14 18 24 23 28 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 1 -1 0 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -5 -5 -7 -5 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 220 259 273 290 186 143 94 104 189 218 219 220 232 238 256 259 264 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.8 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 136 139 140 150 151 158 160 157 149 154 151 153 151 150 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 115 118 122 124 135 138 145 146 140 131 131 125 124 120 119 125 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -53.3 -52.8 -51.8 -51.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.4 -50.2 -49.8 -49.7 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 10 11 7 9 5 8 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 49 49 53 52 51 47 49 49 53 54 56 55 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 22 22 24 27 30 31 33 35 35 37 39 39 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -4 -8 -11 -4 8 22 21 10 17 3 -1 -9 -15 -14 -14 -5 200 MB DIV -42 -32 4 12 -20 -9 -20 2 -16 33 18 20 55 45 29 43 31 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 0 -5 -4 0 -5 6 1 7 7 0 4 0 4 LAND (KM) 1318 1273 1229 1178 1128 1005 914 896 901 839 571 328 126 -4 -84 -92 -121 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.8 26.5 27.6 28.9 30.3 31.7 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.9 55.5 56.0 56.7 57.4 59.4 61.9 64.9 67.9 70.9 73.5 75.7 77.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 8 10 13 14 15 14 12 10 7 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 19 23 24 37 27 39 46 41 28 35 28 23 12 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 15. 14. 15. 17. 15. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 27. 35. 40. 44. 46. 44. 43. 42. 36. 31. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.6 54.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.28 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 427.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 17.3% 12.2% 10.2% 9.3% 14.3% 13.5% 17.7% Logistic: 3.2% 17.5% 11.9% 5.4% 2.9% 8.8% 14.8% 18.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 3.6% 12.6% 8.2% 5.2% 4.1% 7.8% 9.5% 12.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/09/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 7( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 66 70 73 80 87 95 100 104 106 104 103 90 55 36 30 18HR AGO 60 59 62 66 69 76 83 91 96 100 102 100 99 86 51 32 26 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 63 70 77 85 90 94 96 94 93 80 45 26 20 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 60 67 75 80 84 86 84 83 70 35 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT