* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092018 09/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 48 56 62 70 71 71 72 71 67 68 70 73 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 48 56 62 70 71 71 72 71 67 68 70 73 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 45 52 59 65 67 65 61 56 51 47 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 2 3 1 8 4 9 12 18 21 27 27 26 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -4 -1 2 3 8 8 7 11 2 3 1 0 1 7 SHEAR DIR 101 86 93 96 57 86 330 328 312 266 287 285 291 291 318 320 333 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.2 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 119 120 122 123 123 127 135 138 142 140 147 151 152 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 110 111 113 116 118 119 124 133 135 139 137 146 151 152 150 149 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 11 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 56 54 49 48 48 48 50 52 49 52 50 51 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 16 17 16 18 17 16 16 15 12 12 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 86 89 100 97 90 92 76 71 55 40 18 16 9 1 12 21 20 200 MB DIV 35 42 44 42 22 1 -14 -10 11 -6 -6 -16 18 -10 9 -10 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 -5 -2 -2 -4 -11 -7 -5 -13 -3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1957 1987 1964 1895 1828 1657 1477 1295 1152 1053 903 707 554 496 252 262 201 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.7 36.3 36.9 37.8 38.6 40.8 43.4 46.0 48.7 51.3 53.8 56.1 58.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 14 15 15 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 8 11 6 7 10 25 19 18 20 34 32 68 54 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -0. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 32. 40. 41. 41. 42. 41. 37. 38. 40. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 35.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.90 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.48 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 15.6% 10.4% 7.3% 6.7% 10.5% 12.1% 17.6% Logistic: 7.8% 33.2% 21.7% 6.7% 3.0% 15.2% 11.5% 13.7% Bayesian: 2.3% 3.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% 3.5% 3.9% Consensus: 4.7% 17.3% 11.2% 4.7% 3.3% 9.1% 9.0% 11.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 NINE 09/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 48 56 62 70 71 71 72 71 67 68 70 73 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 45 53 59 67 68 68 69 68 64 65 67 70 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 39 47 53 61 62 62 63 62 58 59 61 64 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 38 44 52 53 53 54 53 49 50 52 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT