* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 60 68 73 73 70 66 61 57 52 46 43 44 49 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 60 68 73 73 70 66 61 57 52 46 43 44 49 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 50 55 64 70 70 68 63 58 53 48 43 40 40 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 10 4 5 3 7 13 16 22 30 34 39 26 26 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 4 6 3 8 7 8 5 4 5 3 0 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 73 85 84 85 99 130 172 194 244 227 238 223 216 202 203 206 239 SST (C) 27.4 27.8 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.0 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.4 26.2 26.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 134 136 132 131 126 116 113 112 111 110 108 107 108 116 122 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 132 134 131 130 124 113 108 106 104 102 99 97 96 103 108 109 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 69 71 71 71 72 68 62 53 48 43 42 43 46 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 24 26 28 30 29 28 27 25 25 24 23 23 23 26 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 42 44 47 44 28 28 27 30 30 29 31 72 73 74 45 200 MB DIV 17 4 2 16 26 31 30 17 -8 34 31 21 9 3 31 46 48 700-850 TADV 5 6 7 5 9 7 13 10 17 21 10 15 17 11 2 5 2 LAND (KM) 306 415 531 664 800 1107 1418 1732 2007 2125 2098 2137 2225 2355 2463 2259 2032 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.4 18.3 19.5 21.0 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.0 21.1 22.3 23.6 24.9 27.8 30.7 33.6 36.1 38.3 40.2 41.6 42.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 14 12 11 11 9 8 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 9 12 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 28. 33. 33. 30. 26. 21. 17. 12. 6. 3. 4. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.5 20.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 18.1% 12.2% 9.2% 8.6% 11.6% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.3% 24.6% 17.2% 8.2% 5.5% 14.6% 10.1% 7.1% Bayesian: 2.9% 26.7% 11.0% 1.3% 0.8% 8.1% 4.2% 7.1% Consensus: 7.7% 23.1% 13.5% 6.2% 5.0% 11.4% 8.8% 4.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 54 60 68 73 73 70 66 61 57 52 46 43 44 49 18HR AGO 40 39 44 49 55 63 68 68 65 61 56 52 47 41 38 39 44 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 47 55 60 60 57 53 48 44 39 33 30 31 36 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 44 49 49 46 42 37 33 28 22 19 20 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT