* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 63 67 73 82 91 97 104 106 106 106 104 100 96 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 63 67 73 82 91 97 104 106 106 106 74 42 32 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 60 62 65 70 79 93 104 111 115 111 106 102 72 41 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 6 4 10 11 8 6 11 7 4 6 9 15 19 24 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 2 0 -4 -2 -6 -4 -3 -6 -2 -6 -3 -9 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 255 265 229 242 255 192 121 119 91 134 183 214 210 226 241 258 272 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 133 135 138 140 154 151 156 162 155 154 152 150 154 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 116 117 120 125 138 137 143 148 140 136 131 126 126 123 120 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -54.7 -54.4 -53.4 -52.9 -51.7 -51.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 10 11 7 10 6 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 50 50 50 54 51 50 47 49 49 50 53 56 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 21 21 22 26 30 31 34 35 35 37 39 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -12 -11 -11 -10 -7 18 24 21 21 30 14 5 0 1 19 9 200 MB DIV -5 -3 -34 -42 -14 -14 0 -18 13 -11 10 -5 23 13 12 28 31 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 0 -2 0 -4 -2 1 -3 3 0 7 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1389 1340 1292 1240 1190 1082 966 877 890 882 834 553 303 89 -71 -207 -337 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.8 25.2 25.7 26.5 27.5 28.7 30.2 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.1 54.6 55.2 55.8 56.4 57.9 60.0 62.5 65.3 68.3 71.3 74.1 76.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 9 11 12 14 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 15 18 22 27 38 26 37 45 36 33 34 20 8 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 5. 10. 12. 15. 16. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 18. 27. 36. 42. 49. 51. 51. 51. 49. 45. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.6 54.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 396.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 14.1% 9.8% 8.2% 7.2% 11.2% 12.4% 16.1% Logistic: 1.6% 5.2% 3.5% 1.1% 0.4% 2.6% 3.4% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 6.6% 4.5% 3.1% 2.5% 4.6% 5.3% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 61 63 67 73 82 91 97 104 106 106 106 74 42 32 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 60 64 70 79 88 94 101 103 103 103 71 39 29 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 59 65 74 83 89 96 98 98 98 66 34 24 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 51 57 66 75 81 88 90 90 90 58 26 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT