* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 57 62 67 69 68 63 61 56 55 51 48 48 52 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 57 62 67 69 68 63 61 56 55 51 48 48 52 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 56 64 68 67 64 60 57 53 51 47 43 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 8 9 6 9 6 13 14 20 21 35 34 30 28 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 7 3 2 5 3 6 11 12 6 9 1 2 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 71 83 109 98 111 136 182 186 237 251 245 235 221 208 208 197 247 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.9 28.0 27.5 26.8 26.1 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.4 25.4 25.4 26.1 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 136 138 131 124 116 110 111 111 112 108 108 108 114 117 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 134 135 129 121 113 106 105 104 104 99 98 97 100 102 102 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 69 69 69 74 72 67 60 58 54 50 45 44 42 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 26 27 29 29 29 27 27 25 27 27 27 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 39 38 42 37 37 46 28 27 24 34 46 36 34 34 37 34 49 200 MB DIV 32 5 -5 -3 12 26 27 47 -9 24 34 49 31 16 0 27 12 700-850 TADV 0 7 11 7 12 9 20 12 27 27 10 16 16 13 7 0 3 LAND (KM) 194 287 395 524 656 956 1281 1596 1901 2167 2091 2062 2151 2326 2473 2436 2293 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.9 20.0 21.1 22.4 23.6 26.4 29.4 32.3 35.1 37.6 39.8 41.5 42.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 8 10 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. 1. -2. -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 22. 27. 29. 28. 23. 21. 16. 15. 11. 8. 8. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.7 18.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 18.6% 12.4% 9.2% 8.4% 11.5% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 13.2% 23.3% 19.6% 7.3% 3.1% 11.3% 7.8% 5.6% Bayesian: 3.0% 7.0% 5.3% 0.7% 0.4% 8.7% 1.8% 7.5% Consensus: 7.8% 16.3% 12.4% 5.7% 4.0% 10.5% 7.3% 4.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 48 52 57 62 67 69 68 63 61 56 55 51 48 48 52 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 52 57 62 64 63 58 56 51 50 46 43 43 47 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 45 50 55 57 56 51 49 44 43 39 36 36 40 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 40 45 47 46 41 39 34 33 29 26 26 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT