* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082018 09/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 41 44 47 53 59 62 60 60 56 54 50 46 41 39 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 41 44 47 53 59 62 60 60 56 54 50 46 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 42 47 54 57 56 52 46 42 39 34 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 9 7 6 5 4 10 18 20 28 29 42 42 39 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 10 9 8 8 6 6 11 12 9 0 4 -5 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 72 63 68 69 72 83 99 202 229 234 227 214 223 211 203 202 207 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.4 26.6 26.2 25.6 25.6 25.5 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 132 133 129 130 122 118 111 111 110 104 104 105 105 109 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 127 129 126 129 120 115 107 105 103 96 94 94 94 96 99 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 74 72 73 71 71 70 66 57 55 49 46 41 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 25 26 24 26 27 28 27 27 25 25 25 24 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 50 54 46 45 43 48 47 33 19 28 33 51 46 59 48 29 24 200 MB DIV 99 83 67 50 21 9 55 29 35 23 15 -3 33 27 15 22 3 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -11 -7 -3 -1 0 12 13 25 21 5 6 13 13 11 11 LAND (KM) 162 231 278 366 463 733 1053 1397 1712 1986 2140 2105 2113 2186 2282 2375 2428 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.6 16.5 17.4 18.4 19.5 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.7 21.7 24.3 27.3 30.5 33.4 35.9 38.2 40.1 41.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 10 11 14 15 15 14 12 11 10 7 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 7 6 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -4. -9. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 11. 14. 17. 23. 29. 32. 30. 30. 26. 24. 20. 16. 11. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 18.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 EIGHT 09/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.42 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.61 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.5% 9.8% 6.8% 6.2% 8.9% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 14.3% 7.8% 4.6% 2.1% 5.2% 4.9% 4.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 7.4% 2.7% 0.3% 0.2% 2.1% 1.3% 3.2% Consensus: 4.0% 12.1% 6.8% 3.9% 2.8% 5.4% 5.1% 2.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 EIGHT 09/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 36 41 44 47 53 59 62 60 60 56 54 50 46 41 39 18HR AGO 30 29 31 36 39 42 48 54 57 55 55 51 49 45 41 36 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 34 37 43 49 52 50 50 46 44 40 36 31 29 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 32 38 41 39 39 35 33 29 25 20 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT