* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 56 49 42 37 31 27 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 56 49 42 37 31 27 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 57 50 44 39 31 25 22 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 39 41 43 47 51 55 50 39 14 7 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 8 2 1 -2 -3 0 0 3 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 231 231 234 241 246 246 248 239 267 326 339 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.1 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.1 24.7 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 123 123 124 125 123 117 114 113 112 108 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 40 39 38 36 30 25 26 28 31 34 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 16 14 12 13 14 13 11 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 13 -3 -3 -2 -20 -28 -45 -66 -100 -111 -112 -112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 22 10 -8 -5 12 1 8 -23 -44 -4 0 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 14 14 15 14 9 7 4 4 2 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 425 430 437 454 479 540 609 689 771 869 975 1087 1204 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.9 26.9 28.0 29.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.3 152.8 153.3 153.9 154.4 155.3 156.1 156.9 157.7 158.4 159.2 159.9 160.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -11. -16. -22. -30. -39. -45. -46. -44. -44. -47. -50. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -23. -28. -34. -38. -41. -49. -55. -61. -65. -71. -75. -79. -85. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.7 152.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 58.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 543.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/07/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING