* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 54 54 57 60 67 76 84 95 98 104 103 104 98 90 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 54 54 57 60 67 76 84 95 98 104 103 104 98 90 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 53 54 54 58 65 76 89 101 111 114 109 104 97 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 22 18 17 15 7 5 6 4 4 3 7 9 9 9 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 4 6 4 3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -4 -5 -1 1 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 250 257 260 257 255 240 230 183 159 91 173 173 205 198 196 233 270 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.4 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.3 29.1 29.4 29.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 132 132 132 133 141 148 149 154 164 166 158 153 158 159 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 115 114 115 116 122 131 133 139 149 149 139 130 130 130 114 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -54.5 -54.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 11 13 12 13 10 11 7 700-500 MB RH 44 45 47 48 50 51 54 53 52 50 51 48 51 52 54 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 19 20 20 21 25 27 30 30 33 32 36 34 30 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -26 -17 -20 -13 -10 -4 12 19 27 19 -1 1 -15 -19 -35 -46 200 MB DIV -5 5 -6 -34 -15 -18 -5 -9 -8 -5 9 -3 20 0 19 32 20 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 -2 -4 -2 -1 -5 0 -1 4 3 7 10 5 LAND (KM) 1654 1590 1526 1470 1414 1315 1235 1157 1072 1021 1035 960 656 391 202 98 92 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.9 25.0 25.3 25.8 26.4 27.1 28.1 29.3 30.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.4 52.1 52.8 53.4 54.0 55.2 56.4 57.9 60.0 62.5 65.5 68.6 71.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 9 11 13 15 14 13 10 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 16 14 13 15 21 25 34 33 34 43 28 47 48 59 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 10. 14. 13. 16. 14. 17. 13. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 5. 12. 21. 29. 40. 43. 49. 48. 49. 43. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.0 51.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 7.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.1% 7.3% 6.4% 9.8% Logistic: 0.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 1.1% 1.2% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 2.8% 2.5% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 54 54 57 60 67 76 84 95 98 104 103 104 98 90 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 54 57 60 67 76 84 95 98 104 103 104 98 90 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 54 57 64 73 81 92 95 101 100 101 95 87 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 48 51 58 67 75 86 89 95 94 95 89 81 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT