* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 112 105 100 87 76 69 63 59 57 56 52 50 44 38 34 V (KT) LAND 115 115 112 105 100 87 76 69 63 59 57 56 52 50 44 38 34 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 106 97 89 77 68 64 62 62 62 62 59 54 45 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 6 17 21 30 35 37 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 2 1 0 0 -4 0 2 4 7 10 6 11 6 4 SHEAR DIR 42 44 49 41 228 339 52 291 360 270 206 234 240 251 242 244 234 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 25.8 25.3 25.3 24.9 24.8 25.6 26.2 25.9 26.3 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.7 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 122 117 117 113 112 120 126 122 126 133 135 133 131 136 138 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 44 41 41 40 39 37 33 30 29 29 28 29 31 36 38 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 25 25 24 22 22 21 20 21 21 19 18 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 40 41 45 45 42 63 56 47 26 28 38 45 41 48 41 65 68 200 MB DIV 24 -7 -20 0 19 5 12 3 -3 -2 23 12 -4 -22 -13 -6 15 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -6 1 5 -4 4 -1 4 1 5 2 2 -3 -1 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1746 1831 1922 2016 2090 1882 1615 1349 1105 902 703 511 338 190 54 55 81 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.4 21.0 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.1 130.4 131.7 133.0 134.2 136.8 139.4 142.0 144.4 146.4 148.4 150.4 152.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 4 8 4 2 16 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -14. -23. -32. -41. -48. -54. -59. -62. -62. -63. -65. -67. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -10. -15. -28. -39. -46. -52. -56. -58. -59. -63. -65. -71. -77. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.9 129.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1129.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 1.0% 4.0% 1.3% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/07/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 69 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##