* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 76 72 71 72 72 76 83 91 102 106 110 105 102 98 96 V (KT) LAND 90 82 76 72 71 72 72 76 83 91 102 106 110 105 102 98 96 V (KT) LGEM 90 82 76 73 72 72 74 79 88 97 104 108 110 109 105 98 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 22 26 22 9 7 6 5 10 8 10 13 16 17 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 6 8 0 0 5 1 -4 -1 -5 -6 -3 0 -4 -5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 227 225 226 246 254 216 226 135 199 170 149 138 96 128 125 158 174 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 134 134 135 135 134 136 142 148 153 157 165 163 155 147 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 118 118 117 118 117 115 118 123 129 134 139 148 144 135 126 121 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -52.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.0 -50.9 -49.5 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 6 700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 46 47 47 50 50 53 53 55 53 54 52 53 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 20 22 24 25 26 29 32 37 38 41 41 43 44 45 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -30 -31 -32 -33 -16 -13 2 14 38 57 81 83 73 69 55 67 200 MB DIV 67 46 25 0 -5 -13 2 12 16 33 32 17 45 7 44 53 43 700-850 TADV 12 8 3 4 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 2 2 2 -5 4 3 3 LAND (KM) 1934 1871 1811 1750 1691 1572 1463 1377 1298 1244 1202 1194 1206 897 595 340 169 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.8 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.5 27.1 27.8 28.7 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.2 49.0 49.8 50.5 51.3 52.7 54.1 55.3 56.7 58.2 60.0 62.3 65.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 10 12 14 14 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 27 33 29 24 26 20 14 15 21 26 35 36 32 35 24 43 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -19. -23. -24. -25. -25. -26. -27. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -12. -12. -9. -4. -0. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 17. 16. 20. 18. 19. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -18. -19. -18. -18. -14. -7. 1. 12. 16. 20. 15. 12. 8. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 24.4 48.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 0.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.20 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 797.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.10 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/06/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 5( 16) 4( 20) 4( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 82 76 72 71 72 72 76 83 91 102 106 110 105 102 98 96 18HR AGO 90 89 83 79 78 79 79 83 90 98 109 113 117 112 109 105 103 12HR AGO 90 87 86 82 81 82 82 86 93 101 112 116 120 115 112 108 106 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 80 80 84 91 99 110 114 118 113 110 106 104 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 72 72 76 83 91 102 106 110 105 102 98 96 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT