* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 77 74 73 69 68 65 62 59 58 59 59 59 57 51 45 V (KT) LAND 85 79 77 74 73 69 68 65 62 59 58 59 59 59 57 51 45 V (KT) LGEM 85 80 77 74 72 67 62 58 55 52 53 55 57 59 57 52 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 7 3 2 2 4 4 4 8 15 25 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 2 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 3 2 7 10 7 3 SHEAR DIR 31 44 47 39 48 71 70 8 88 212 300 251 264 238 238 254 260 SST (C) 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.5 25.3 25.4 25.7 26.3 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 138 141 137 133 129 120 117 118 121 127 128 127 127 127 129 131 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 50 50 49 45 46 40 36 32 30 31 32 31 34 33 35 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 28 29 27 28 26 25 23 22 22 22 22 21 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 46 50 53 54 52 66 65 78 62 69 55 60 43 39 39 40 49 200 MB DIV 18 33 8 -6 3 28 16 1 -5 -2 6 -4 -1 10 8 -16 -4 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -5 -7 -8 -6 0 -2 0 4 1 2 -4 -3 -4 -8 -10 LAND (KM) 1380 1465 1531 1599 1676 1845 2039 1956 1690 1438 1209 986 773 577 388 216 104 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.2 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.9 124.2 125.4 126.7 128.0 130.7 133.4 136.1 138.7 141.2 143.5 145.8 148.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 11 11 10 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -19. -23. -25. -27. -29. -30. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 6. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -11. -12. -16. -17. -20. -23. -26. -27. -26. -26. -26. -28. -34. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.3 122.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.20 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.35 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 721.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.11 -0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 11.7% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/05/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##