* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 100 94 86 73 58 44 34 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 102 100 94 86 73 58 44 34 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 102 100 93 87 74 60 47 37 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 17 23 23 32 41 46 47 53 55 53 34 22 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 8 6 8 5 3 5 1 2 -1 -3 4 -4 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 258 242 242 234 226 229 226 241 247 259 261 286 313 1 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.2 25.9 26.0 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.3 24.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 131 129 130 130 124 121 122 124 121 118 116 116 110 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 -54.5 -55.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 44 45 46 42 42 40 38 35 33 29 28 28 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 22 21 21 18 15 13 13 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 49 59 51 47 35 23 3 -20 -22 -58 -77 -110 -115 -123 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 17 8 11 21 19 11 0 -11 -6 -21 -62 -31 -32 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 6 11 15 18 12 10 5 6 3 8 1 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 711 632 555 499 449 400 413 443 500 553 611 677 766 889 1042 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.8 23.0 24.2 25.3 26.3 27.2 28.1 29.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.0 148.8 149.5 150.1 150.7 151.8 152.8 153.8 154.8 155.9 156.8 157.6 158.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 8 4 4 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -17. -25. -31. -36. -40. -43. -45. -47. -50. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -17. -19. -23. -28. -34. -41. -46. -49. -48. -49. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -13. -12. -17. -19. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -0. -6. -14. -27. -42. -56. -65. -70. -82. -94.-102.-107.-109.-110.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.5 148.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 832.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/05/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING