* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 105 105 101 95 80 66 54 42 38 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 105 105 101 95 80 66 54 42 38 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 106 105 101 95 82 70 57 45 36 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 16 24 24 39 40 49 49 53 55 42 34 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 8 5 9 2 8 0 3 2 -5 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 274 256 231 232 220 227 223 230 232 244 258 277 315 338 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.1 25.1 24.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 133 131 129 130 125 121 121 123 119 116 113 113 110 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 43 45 45 43 42 40 39 35 34 31 31 30 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 21 21 20 19 17 15 16 12 12 9 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 56 51 58 48 39 31 1 -17 -18 -28 -50 -71 -113 -123 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 16 18 4 5 41 15 23 0 14 -9 -23 -27 -36 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 1 4 15 14 19 15 8 10 9 7 13 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 795 711 628 563 503 438 455 485 557 633 709 779 854 945 1053 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.3 20.6 21.6 22.9 24.2 25.5 26.6 27.7 28.7 29.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.2 148.0 148.8 149.5 150.1 151.2 152.1 153.1 154.0 154.8 155.6 156.4 157.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 12 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -24. -30. -35. -40. -43. -45. -48. -51. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16. -20. -25. -31. -38. -44. -49. -51. -52. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 6. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -8. -14. -12. -15. -18. -18. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 1. -5. -20. -34. -46. -58. -62. -74. -82. -94.-105.-110.-113.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.5 147.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 840.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/05/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING