* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 61 61 60 63 63 65 63 60 57 52 49 47 45 45 V (KT) LAND 60 52 42 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 60 54 44 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 12 9 12 10 9 13 24 38 52 47 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -7 -4 -4 -6 -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 307 324 315 318 344 294 285 249 257 261 289 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.2 30.0 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 147 152 158 159 162 162 160 155 154 155 170 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 128 130 133 132 132 130 127 123 123 124 135 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.9 -54.5 -55.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 10 4 7 1 4 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 64 67 68 73 74 76 76 73 63 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 9 9 11 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -75 -74 -38 -8 -6 -10 -33 -18 -33 -35 -62 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 16 7 35 46 24 52 18 57 31 20 39 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 14 5 7 7 4 3 8 7 6 20 28 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 59 -14 -117 -175 -255 -385 -502 -601 -711 -818 -947 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.5 31.3 32.0 32.6 33.5 34.3 35.2 36.2 37.4 38.8 40.2 41.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.8 89.6 90.3 90.9 92.0 92.9 93.4 93.4 92.9 91.8 90.0 88.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 6 7 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 28 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -12. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 3. 3. 5. 3. -0. -3. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.7 87.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.39 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.9% 10.9% 8.7% 8.0% 11.3% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 8.6% 4.6% 3.5% 1.6% 5.8% 5.0% 1.9% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 8.3% 5.2% 4.1% 3.2% 5.7% 5.5% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/05/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 52 42 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 60 59 49 43 39 35 34 34 34 34 35 36 37 37 37 37 37 12HR AGO 60 57 56 50 46 42 41 41 41 41 42 43 44 44 44 44 44 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 46 42 41 41 41 41 42 43 44 44 44 44 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT