* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 59 60 61 62 65 67 66 67 60 58 57 54 53 53 V (KT) LAND 55 57 49 40 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 50 40 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 17 13 9 10 7 13 17 35 42 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -2 -5 -3 -6 -3 -4 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 274 311 338 328 328 320 287 253 253 257 286 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.7 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.2 29.2 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 147 155 162 163 162 162 160 154 154 155 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 134 127 132 137 134 131 129 128 123 124 124 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.7 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 6 9 6 6 3 3 0 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 63 66 70 70 73 72 75 74 66 56 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 11 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 12 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -51 -75 -76 -26 -20 0 -29 -11 -26 -18 -74 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 50 17 1 35 20 40 43 38 29 24 40 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 17 12 0 7 2 8 6 11 13 22 32 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 157 62 -34 -109 -199 -360 -479 -570 -684 -814 -935 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.8 30.6 31.4 32.1 33.2 34.1 34.9 35.9 37.1 38.5 40.1 41.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.3 88.3 89.3 90.0 90.8 92.1 93.1 93.8 94.1 93.8 92.9 91.5 90.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 7 5 5 5 7 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 26 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -8. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -7. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. 11. 12. 5. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.9 87.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 17.4% 11.6% 9.3% 8.8% 13.2% 12.4% 16.6% Logistic: 3.4% 15.9% 9.2% 7.9% 4.8% 13.5% 9.6% 2.5% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 11.4% 7.0% 5.8% 4.5% 8.9% 7.4% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/04/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 49 40 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 55 54 46 37 31 26 24 24 24 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 55 52 51 42 36 31 29 29 29 29 30 31 32 32 32 32 32 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 39 34 32 32 32 32 33 34 35 35 35 35 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT