* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 79 79 78 76 76 72 66 62 58 55 54 56 57 52 V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 79 79 78 76 76 72 66 62 58 55 54 56 57 52 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 77 78 76 74 72 67 61 56 51 48 46 46 49 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 15 15 18 17 13 12 11 5 1 4 3 5 10 21 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 4 2 5 4 0 -3 -1 -2 -5 -4 -5 3 9 4 SHEAR DIR 54 52 49 53 44 52 58 38 36 56 50 47 321 329 254 243 257 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.3 26.1 27.1 27.0 25.9 25.3 25.6 25.3 24.7 25.3 26.2 25.3 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 138 127 125 136 135 124 117 121 117 111 117 126 116 120 121 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 60 57 57 54 54 53 49 45 44 43 41 39 41 37 37 37 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 24 25 25 25 27 27 29 28 25 23 21 20 19 19 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 30 36 40 41 64 63 60 40 39 5 4 13 48 62 64 200 MB DIV 14 26 26 16 13 27 17 12 0 -3 6 4 2 16 17 14 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -6 -1 -10 -10 0 0 0 4 0 7 5 -3 LAND (KM) 967 1032 1083 1148 1221 1379 1512 1677 1858 2022 1888 1633 1385 1159 982 848 733 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.7 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.7 118.7 119.8 120.9 123.3 125.8 128.6 131.3 134.1 136.8 139.4 142.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 13 14 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 1 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 11. 10. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. 2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -14. -13. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.9 116.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.14 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 453.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.40 -2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 19.7% 16.6% 12.8% 8.8% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 8.1% 5.0% 3.3% 1.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 9.6% 7.2% 5.4% 3.3% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##