* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 54 52 51 48 49 49 55 60 69 72 76 77 79 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 54 52 51 48 49 49 55 60 69 72 76 77 79 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 57 56 54 52 50 51 53 55 61 69 79 85 86 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 17 16 15 20 14 17 12 20 12 13 8 12 17 20 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 6 8 4 12 8 11 8 6 0 0 2 -5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 221 225 236 243 242 241 236 251 270 276 273 254 157 190 141 139 122 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.2 27.1 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 115 115 116 116 126 128 132 136 145 151 151 155 151 154 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 108 108 109 108 117 117 119 121 128 131 129 131 127 129 132 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 52 50 51 49 51 53 52 53 53 52 45 47 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 21 19 19 19 17 18 18 21 23 27 28 30 31 34 850 MB ENV VOR 96 88 79 69 63 54 23 2 -20 -27 -23 -21 -9 24 62 -9 -47 200 MB DIV 31 23 18 6 -2 -1 44 25 49 10 26 7 42 10 28 -5 3 700-850 TADV 11 13 13 14 13 13 14 14 12 7 8 3 1 -2 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2071 2009 1945 1897 1858 1834 1772 1608 1468 1375 1313 1269 1246 1234 1249 1283 1336 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.5 20.4 21.4 22.4 23.5 24.5 25.5 26.5 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.2 40.4 41.7 42.8 44.0 46.3 48.6 50.9 52.7 54.2 55.6 57.1 58.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 3 5 2 5 1 13 9 14 17 21 23 24 31 32 37 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -6. -8. -5. -3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -6. -6. -0. 5. 14. 17. 21. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.4 39.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.22 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.3% 8.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.2% 2.0% 1.5% 0.9% 2.5% 2.4% 1.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.7% 3.6% 3.0% 0.3% 0.8% 3.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/03/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 56 56 54 52 51 48 49 49 55 60 69 72 76 77 79 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 52 50 49 46 47 47 53 58 67 70 74 75 77 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 49 47 46 43 44 44 50 55 64 67 71 72 74 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 41 40 37 38 38 44 49 58 61 65 66 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT