* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 51 54 60 63 66 68 69 67 69 73 75 76 79 80 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 52 58 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 49 53 57 63 45 32 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 14 17 13 15 11 11 10 11 13 13 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 -4 -1 -6 -4 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 272 280 299 313 298 336 334 327 298 304 261 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.3 29.3 28.8 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.3 30.5 30.4 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 167 158 158 149 160 165 166 169 169 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 159 154 144 142 131 137 138 135 140 142 138 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.1 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -53.9 -54.2 -53.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.8 -54.1 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 10 6 10 5 9 4 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 62 64 65 65 68 72 74 79 78 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 11 9 8 7 8 6 6 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -22 -24 -52 -55 -52 -80 -33 -16 -18 -25 -5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 29 26 0 -6 20 6 35 -1 41 30 56 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -5 -2 4 5 13 6 6 7 2 8 17 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 12 26 96 178 177 57 -91 -279 -402 -476 -555 -642 -740 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.9 26.7 27.5 28.2 29.8 31.2 32.5 33.4 34.0 34.6 35.3 36.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.6 82.0 83.3 84.6 85.9 88.3 90.3 91.8 93.1 94.2 95.1 95.6 96.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 8 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 42 28 27 25 21 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27. 29. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -8. -9. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 14. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. 27. 29. 34. 35. 36. 39. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.1 80.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.74 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 18.8% 12.3% 9.1% 8.3% 12.1% 14.3% 25.1% Logistic: 7.7% 43.1% 26.9% 15.4% 9.3% 36.1% 45.3% 53.2% Bayesian: 7.8% 10.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% Consensus: 7.6% 24.0% 13.6% 8.2% 5.9% 16.4% 20.3% 26.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/03/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 49 52 58 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 48 54 37 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 48 31 21 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT