* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 09/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 118 113 107 91 77 65 59 55 52 47 40 37 29 23 20 V (KT) LAND 115 119 118 113 107 91 77 65 59 55 52 47 40 37 29 23 20 V (KT) LGEM 115 117 112 104 97 82 70 63 58 56 53 49 43 36 31 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 4 3 10 15 15 13 17 22 34 40 46 51 50 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 7 6 3 0 4 2 4 8 9 9 6 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 35 129 144 153 157 178 198 235 254 238 224 213 210 224 233 228 231 SST (C) 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.7 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.2 25.4 24.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 132 131 133 122 123 125 125 125 125 123 122 125 118 112 103 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.7 -53.2 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 53 50 53 48 45 43 41 42 44 47 46 47 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 28 27 25 24 23 23 23 22 22 20 21 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 105 111 107 103 81 67 59 53 51 60 45 46 47 26 3 17 23 200 MB DIV 55 56 20 -1 13 17 5 4 11 1 26 38 30 28 16 19 -2 700-850 TADV -5 1 -3 -7 -8 3 3 5 5 9 20 23 21 28 15 2 -12 LAND (KM) 1889 1999 2116 2086 1904 1558 1268 1033 827 647 536 494 489 550 698 923 1183 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.4 21.9 22.6 23.6 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.0 131.6 133.2 134.9 136.6 139.9 142.7 145.0 147.1 149.1 150.8 152.3 153.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 16 14 12 10 10 9 8 9 9 10 11 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 5 2 2 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -27. -35. -43. -49. -54. -58. -60. -61. -64. -67. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -13. -19. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -8. -10. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. -2. -8. -24. -38. -50. -56. -59. -63. -68. -75. -78. -86. -92. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.9 130.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 876.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 2.0% 5.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 0.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 09/02/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 13 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##