* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 47 49 50 49 48 47 49 50 54 58 66 71 77 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 47 49 50 49 48 47 49 50 54 58 66 71 77 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 47 48 48 47 45 45 46 49 54 61 72 84 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 8 10 16 18 19 23 15 17 11 9 1 4 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 0 2 2 4 7 9 6 3 6 0 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 264 260 227 222 227 231 240 219 248 238 263 244 277 154 150 169 169 SST (C) 25.3 25.3 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 25.9 26.4 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 111 112 113 114 115 113 118 127 130 136 142 148 156 152 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 106 107 107 108 107 105 109 116 118 123 126 129 135 130 131 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.4 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 60 58 55 53 51 48 49 49 50 53 52 53 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 18 18 17 19 21 25 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 124 124 122 116 111 97 67 54 21 11 -11 -12 -27 -18 -10 12 58 200 MB DIV 11 -2 0 18 13 6 -5 12 19 35 30 14 22 23 28 -11 14 700-850 TADV 7 6 7 8 13 14 16 21 15 15 15 7 5 1 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1609 1760 1912 2057 2121 1984 1898 1854 1840 1778 1636 1505 1403 1334 1306 1321 1350 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.7 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.4 33.8 35.2 36.5 37.9 40.5 42.7 44.8 46.8 48.8 50.7 52.4 54.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 4 17 11 15 20 24 26 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -11. -9. -7. -3. 0. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 21. 26. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.8 32.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 10.8% 7.5% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 1.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.6% 2.8% 2.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 46 47 49 50 49 48 47 49 50 54 58 66 71 77 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 46 48 49 48 47 46 48 49 53 57 65 70 76 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 44 45 44 43 42 44 45 49 53 61 66 72 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 39 38 37 36 38 39 43 47 55 60 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT