* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 57 59 60 58 57 55 53 54 54 56 60 66 72 77 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 57 59 60 58 57 55 53 54 54 56 60 66 72 77 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 58 59 60 59 58 57 56 57 59 63 69 76 85 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 5 6 7 9 16 11 17 12 18 10 13 1 2 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 3 2 4 1 5 5 10 6 10 6 5 5 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 271 261 271 231 224 235 236 228 242 255 267 273 255 108 179 120 157 SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.1 25.8 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 110 110 109 111 112 114 115 115 112 123 128 132 140 143 150 159 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 105 104 106 106 107 107 107 104 114 116 119 124 125 130 137 130 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 61 63 57 57 54 52 48 47 49 48 51 51 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 22 22 22 21 20 20 19 19 20 21 23 26 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 122 121 121 118 114 99 79 51 39 24 -11 -27 -47 -40 -39 -19 -1 200 MB DIV 24 16 9 7 7 5 0 6 14 40 21 34 8 49 3 48 3 700-850 TADV 1 7 5 4 9 19 18 21 20 14 16 8 9 2 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1423 1569 1716 1862 2008 2080 1968 1885 1855 1831 1726 1593 1493 1419 1384 1381 1386 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.2 21.2 22.3 23.5 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.7 32.1 33.4 34.8 36.1 38.7 41.1 43.2 45.4 47.7 49.7 51.4 52.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 8 16 12 19 20 23 27 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 7. 5. 3. 4. 4. 6. 10. 16. 22. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.3 30.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 16.9% 11.8% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 17.4% 10.7% 8.3% 4.9% 12.2% 5.3% 2.3% Bayesian: 4.8% 10.2% 2.9% 0.7% 0.5% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 14.8% 8.5% 6.1% 1.8% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/02/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 57 59 60 58 57 55 53 54 54 56 60 66 72 77 18HR AGO 50 49 52 53 55 56 54 53 51 49 50 50 52 56 62 68 73 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 49 50 48 47 45 43 44 44 46 50 56 62 67 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 43 41 40 38 36 37 37 39 43 49 55 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT