* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172018 09/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 41 50 54 61 60 58 55 52 50 50 49 49 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 41 50 54 61 60 58 55 52 50 50 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 35 37 38 36 34 31 28 27 25 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 16 13 14 23 22 25 21 17 10 16 10 8 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 2 6 0 3 5 3 4 6 0 0 4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 31 30 31 28 45 66 74 74 68 60 61 53 69 127 127 140 176 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.0 27.1 26.4 25.5 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 153 154 153 148 145 146 146 148 145 136 129 119 121 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 76 75 73 71 69 64 61 60 58 55 49 42 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 12 13 13 16 15 19 18 15 12 9 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -28 -34 -43 -43 -22 0 28 40 49 58 69 68 73 60 51 22 200 MB DIV 66 82 72 62 58 54 48 30 37 5 24 21 10 44 -5 -9 -4 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 -1 -5 -6 -8 -4 -3 0 3 7 LAND (KM) 785 810 835 850 842 854 919 1009 1127 1228 1352 1502 1626 1773 1962 2069 1813 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.1 111.6 112.1 112.5 113.6 115.0 116.5 118.2 120.1 122.2 124.5 127.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 28 29 29 26 14 10 10 11 12 10 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 32. 32. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -7. -9. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 9. 6. 3. -1. -4. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 20. 24. 31. 30. 28. 25. 22. 20. 20. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 110.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 SEVENTEEN 09/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.29 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.91 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 19.6% 14.7% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 6.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 2.8% 4.2% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 9.6% 5.8% 3.9% 0.1% 1.0% 6.1% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 SEVENTEEN 09/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##