* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172018 09/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 49 55 65 77 81 80 84 80 76 74 70 68 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 49 55 65 77 81 80 84 80 76 74 70 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 39 44 50 57 61 63 64 62 57 52 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 16 11 10 9 12 17 15 19 13 16 16 15 7 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 0 1 1 6 2 8 6 7 9 9 8 5 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 19 11 14 17 6 12 46 62 31 39 37 49 47 31 22 20 353 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 27.6 26.9 25.6 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 154 154 154 153 149 144 146 147 149 141 134 121 117 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 82 81 78 77 76 72 72 69 64 61 61 57 51 48 45 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 11 11 10 11 13 14 18 23 26 25 30 28 27 25 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -26 -31 -25 -25 -27 -19 10 30 43 77 84 89 103 94 92 80 200 MB DIV 93 61 59 71 84 102 80 45 44 22 5 13 -11 -1 0 8 -6 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -7 -4 -4 -2 -3 -1 -5 -12 -14 -15 -4 -13 -3 3 4 LAND (KM) 689 699 716 742 768 782 785 831 907 1013 1109 1232 1366 1490 1656 1860 1989 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.6 110.1 110.7 111.2 112.3 113.4 114.6 116.0 117.7 119.6 121.7 124.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 22 24 26 28 26 16 10 10 14 17 7 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 25. 23. 28. 23. 19. 16. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 19. 25. 35. 47. 51. 50. 54. 50. 46. 44. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 109.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 SEVENTEEN 09/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.35 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.81 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 23.2% 17.1% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 18.4% Logistic: 0.3% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 3.2% 7.0% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Consensus: 3.3% 9.4% 6.3% 4.4% 0.0% 1.1% 7.9% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 SEVENTEEN 09/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##